By ZECH YODER
Rolling into Homestead
The NASCAR Playoffs resume with a full weekend of racing action. Cup, Xfinity, and Craftsman Trucks will all be at Homestead-Miami Speedway, tackling the 1.5-mile, progressive banked oval.
For the Craftsman Trucks, Homestead is the penultimate race of the season and will determine who reaches the Championship 4 in Phoenix Raceway. Only one driver is locked into the championship race: Corey Heim, who won at Bristol Motor Speedway back in September. Three spots remain among seven drivers: Carson Hocevar (+23), Christian Eckes (+9), Nick Sanchez (+3), Grant Efinger (-3), Ben Rhodes (-5), Ty Majeski (-19), and Zane Smith (-36).
At least two drivers can point their way into the championship race. For Smith and Majeski, it is win or go home. Given their points deficits entering the race, they will not be looking for stage points and may make big moves late in the race to put themselves in position for the win.
At the top of the standings, Carson Hocevar, second place in the standings and 23 points above the cutline, is in a great position to transfer to the Championship 4. If he can pick up points in the first and second stages, his points cushion should carry him through. The major points fight will be between Eckes, Sanchez, Enfinger, and Rhodes, third through sixth in the standing and separated by only 14 points.
As he did last year to win the Truck Series Championship, I expect Zane Smith to pick up a clutch win and transfer to the championship race. Carson Hocevar and Christian Eckes will transfer on points.
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The Xfinity playoff standings are not quite as tight, though two races remain before the championship race at Phoenix. None of the remaining playoff drivers are locked into the Championship 4 because last week’s race was won by a non-playoff driver. Current points leader John Hunter Nemechek has a commanding 47-point lead, and a strong run, even if it is not a win, could lock him in on points.
Each of the remaining top-4 drivers have a decent points cushion, although with two races remaining, should not be comfortable. Of those below the cutline, Sam Mayer, 15 points back, has the strongest opportunity for a win. Winning three races this year, his talent has finally met his racing potential. Mayer and the JRM Motorsports cars have continued to improve through the season, and his win at the last cut-off race (Charlotte Roval) has demonstrated to Mayer and the rest of the garage area that he is a legitimate contender.
Of those currently in the top 4, I am most concerned for Austin Hill. Though he as denominated at times throughout the season, I am not convinced his team, Richard Childress Racing, has the speed at Homestead or next week at Martinsville to propel him to the Championship 4.
My pick for the Xfinity race is John Hunter Nemechek. The Gibbs Toyotas have been lightning fast on 1.5-mile tracks and he has demonstrated his ability to close out races. I expect him to dominate the race on Saturday.
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Finally, the Cup Series.
Kyle Larson locked himself in with a win last week at Las Vegas. Three championship spots remain with two races left. Positions 2 through 5 are separated by only nine points, and positions 2 through 8 are separated by 33 points. Thus, only Larson is safe.
After nearly winning at Las Vegas last week, Christopher Bell, though below the cutline in fifth place, made significant strides, gaining 18 points on Martin Truex Jr. and 14 points on Denny Hamlin. He has also been phenomenal in qualifying and has started from the pole four of the last eight races.
Both Truex Jr. and Hamlin have reason for concern.
Truex Jr., who after winning the regular season championship, has been less than mediocre through the playoffs. His average finish in the playoffs is a dismal 17.1 and he has been on the brink of eliminate several times. He needs to turn it around in a big way this weekend. Fortunately for Truex, he won a championship at Homestead in 2017 and the Toyotas have been strong on 1.5-mile tracks.
For Hamlin, this is a make-or-break weekend. I believe his Championship 4 hopes hinges on his performance this weekend. If he can pick up stage points and finishes in the top 5, I believe he goes locks himself in at Martinsville. If he doesn’t and falls below the cutline, Denny hopes are Martinsville are slim.
Below the cutline, Tyler Reddick and Chris Buscher will be strong and will try to lock themselves in with a win. Reddick has won two Xfinity Championship at Homestead and is excellent at “running the wall,” a technique that is particularly important at Homestead.
However, I do not believe anybody is beating Kyle Larson this weekend. He was in a class of his own last year at Homestead, and he can run without a care in the world this year since his is locked into the final round. I believe he and Cliff Daniels put a beating on the rest of the field.
Zech Yoder is a local resident, an attorney at Adler Attorneys in Noblesville, and a lifelong race fan.