By ZECH YODER
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville this weekend. It’s the second-to-last race of the season and last opportunity to qualify for the Championship 4 next week at Phoenix Raceway.
Homestead-Miami Speedway provided a late race surge from Christopher Bell, who punched his ticket to the Championship 4 with the win. Danny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., both above the cutline, had disastrous finishes at Homestead and both sit 17 points outside of the last transfer spot.
Going to Martinsville is both discouraging and exciting. It is discouraging because the NextGen car has been dismal on short tracks the last two years. The increased down force, wider tires, and sequential five-speed gear box has made passing extremely difficult. In the old car, getting around Martinsville quickly was extremely difficult, which allowed those with speed to pass the slower car. With the added grip and drivability of the new car, the fast cars are not substantially faster than the slow cars. NASCAR had spent a great deal of time and money on making the short track racing better. It is bringing a new tire to the track that hopefully will wear faster and create more disparity throughout the field.
This weekend’s race is encouraging because two of the championship favorites are outside the final championship spot and may need a win to transfer to the Championship 4. Martin Truex Jr., the regular season champion, and Denny Hamlin, the favorite after winning the night race at Bristol, are in trouble. Both are very good at Martinsville with Martin Truex Jr. winning three times (last in the Spring of 2021) and Denny Hamlin winning five times (last in the Spring of 2015). But Truex and Hamlin are in a 17-point hole to fourth place Ryan Blaney. Though he hasn’t won at Martinsville, Ryan Blaney’s average finish since 2020 is 4.83. If he qualifies well, Blaney can put himself in a good position to capture stage points and qualify for the Championship 4 on Points. Realistically then, Truex or Hamlin will need a win.
I have not mentioned Tyler Reddick. He is 10 points behind Blaney and 7 points ahead of Truex and Hamlin. His record at Martinsville has not been stellar with only one career top 10 finish. Yet, a good qualifying effort could put him in a position to capitalize on problems from his competitors.
Finally, Chris Buescher sits 43 points behind Blaney. He must win to transfer. Buescher won a Richmond earlier this year and is a good short track racer. Additionally, RFK Racing, who has been the most consistent Ford team, will be putting everything they have into Buescher’s car. If he is running toward the front, a late race caution and gamble could give him an opportunity to win his way in.
Not locked in yet, William Byron is 30 points above the cutline. He can clinch a Championship 4 appearance during the race, and provided he does not go up in flames before the start of the race, I expect him to do so.
The race is between Truex, Hamlin, and Blaney. Blaney’s points gap will require him to points race and hope to transfer via points. Truex and Hamlin will likely points race for the first stage. However, if Blaney gains points in the first stage, I would not be surprised if Truex and Hamlin go off strategy to set themselves up for a win. Hamlin is going to be aggressive and will not be afraid to wreck someone for a win. He has a better chance of transferring then Truex.
Ultimately, however, I think neither Truex or Hamlin wins and Blaney transfers on points.
Zech Yoder is a local resident, an attorney at Adler Attorneys in Noblesville, and a lifelong race fan.