By ZECH YODER
As we near the end of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series, several drivers stand out in my mind.
Of course, the two drivers who have already transferred to the Championship 4, Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick. But for those who have not qualified, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin. Of those mentioned who have not transferred, one sits above the cut line, the other two are currently out.
Christopher Bell sits 29 points above the cut and is in a very good position to transfer on points. Despite not winning a race in the Playoffs, Bell has been the most consistent driver and has only finished outside the top 10 once in the last eight races, including five top 5 finishes. Bell has proven himself at Martinsville, grabbing a walk-off win at the 2022 Martinsville race. Just as important, Bell’s pit crew has been nearly flawless in the playoffs. He is an exceptional qualifier, and I expect him to start near the front on Sunday. If he is able to collect some stage points in the first two stages, even a mediocre finish should be enough for Bell to lock himself into the Championship 4.
Earlier this season, Denny Hamlin seemed untouchable and was certainly the class of the field. But the second half of the year and playoffs have not gone his way. Nonetheless, Hamlin finds himself only 18 points out of fourth place in the playoff standings. A win would obviously lock him in the Championship 4, and he can win at Martinsville. He is great on short tracks and picked up wins this year at Bristol and Richmond. While Martinsville is different, Hamlin’s short track experience will serve him well.
What may be his golden ticket is the tire. NASCAR is bringing a new, softer tire to Martinsville that is expected to wear out much faster than those that have been used the last few years. If Martinsville becomes a tire-wear race, few are better than Hamlin. Even if he does not win, qualifying on points is not totally out of the question (unless one of the other remaining unqualified top-8 drivers win). Hamlin needs stage points, at least in the first stage. If it looks unlikely that he cannot qualify on points, watch him to go to an alternative strategy to win the race.
If Hamlin can figure out a way to get in the Championship 4, watch out. He will win at Phoenix.
Finally, by far the best driver in the garage: Kyle Larson. How is it possible that he is seven points below the cut line? Larson has six wins this season, and at times he has been utterly untouchable.
Unfortunately, the last two weeks have been downright miserable for Larson. Tire issues plagued him and his team at both Las Vegas and Homestead. Nonetheless, he made a brilliant comeback at Homestead and had a shot at the lead, making an opportunistic move on then-race leader Ryan Blaney in the waning laps. As has been his luck in the round of 8, the move didn’t quite work, and he spun in the middle of the corner. Despite being below the cut, Larson is still in a great spot.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Larson went out and dominated the race as he has done on multiple occasions this year. But he doesn’t have to dominate to transfer. He must merely beat out his teammate, William Byron. Unless one of the other top-8 drivers not named Logano, Reddick, or Bell win, I think Larson will get in on points. He is just too good not to transfer.
Who will it be? We know two of the Championship 4 drivers. This weekend, we will find out the other two drivers.
Zech Yoder is a local resident, an attorney at Adler Attorneys in Noblesville, and a lifelong race fan.