Jerry McKibben has been the demographer used by the Hamilton Southeastern (HSE) School District for many years, and his latest forecast shows a slight increase in the overall student population in the next few years and a slight decline after that.
McKibben
But, he also predicts a decline in the kindergarten through fourth grade population as the high school populations grow.
McKibben provided a report to the school board at Wednesday night’s regular meeting. He said most forecasters were factoring in a recession by this time, but the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates well below 5 percent, which was not predicted a year ago.
This has kept the housing market very hot. In Fishers, there are more existing homes being sold compared to new homes being constructed. He added that the results of the 2020 census, when released in 2021, will provide valuable data to the local school district.
The concept of the “large school effect” was explained, when some families believe their children cannot compete in a large school to participate in extracurricular activities. McKibben says most HSE students in this category end up attending Mount Vernon schools in neighboring Hancock County.
HSE Schools may lose a small amount of the student population over the next 10 years, but will not lose nearly the number of students projected for most school districts in the state of Indiana during that same 10-year period, according to McKibben.
Click here to view the entire McKibben report on HSE Schools.