The heart of the NASCAR Playoffs

By ZECH YODER

There are four races to go in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Season: Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville, and Phoenix. Over the next three races, the eight remaining drivers will be whittled down to four.

This is the heart of the NASCAR season. The tracks in the semi-finale round are quintessential NASCAR tracks. No gimmicks or wildcards. The Championship Four will be decided on pure speed, both on the track and pit road.

And this year, unlike in previous years perhaps, the remaining eight drivers have been the best eight drivers throughout the year. An argument can be made for any of the remaining eight drivers to reach the Championship Four and win the Cup Series title. The points as they stand are: 1. Kyle Larson, 2. Christopher Bell -20, 3. Tyler Reddick -23, 4. William Byron -29, 5. Ryan Blaney -33, 6. Denny Hamlin -37, 7. Chase Elliott -38, 8. Joey Logano -40.

Of the eight remaining drivers, seven have made the Champion Four in the past, the exception being Tyler Reddick. Further, four of the eight drivers are past Cup Series Champions, including Kyle Larson (2021), Ryan Blaney (2023), Chase Elliott (2020), and Joey Logano (2018, 2022). This may be the best semi-final round we have seen since the playoff style championship began in 2014.

The first two tracks, Las Vegas and Homestead, are 1.5-mile tracks where car performance and speed are paramount. Last year, Kyle Larson won Las Vegas and Christopher Bell won Homestead. I except Larson and Bell to be the class of the field once again. I also expect that Denny Hamlin to challenge for a win at Las Vegas and Homestead. Thus far, Hamlin’s playoff performance has been mediocre at best, but he survived. He is excellent on 1.5-mile tracks and disparate for a championship. Blaney and Logano have lacked speed at the intermediate tracks this year. Although either Blaney or Logano could steal a win, I think their real opportunity is Martinsville.

The driver with the biggest question mark is Tyler Reddick. Reddick was the regular season champion, and at time the epitome of consistency. He has been remarkably at 1.5-mile tracks, winning the Fall Kansas Race in 2023 and two Xfinity Championships with the ability to run the wall at Homestead. On paper, he is a Championship Four lock. But much like Hamlin, his playoff run has been lackluster. Reddick squeaked into the Round of Eight with an 11^th place finish at the Roval. While I could see him dominating at Las Vegas or Homestead, I could also see him struggling to finish in the top 10. If Reddick get some help from his pit crew, I believe he is in a very good position to transfer. Ultimately, I think he will be strong over the next couple weeks.

So, my picks. For Las Vegas I have Christopher Bell. Since the playoffs began, he has been Mr. Consistency. He almost won at Las Vegas last year. He gets it done this weekend.

Homestead, I have Kyle Larson. Larson is hands down the best driver in the field. If he doesn’t win at Las Vegas, he’ll win at Homestead.

My Martinsville pick is not a playoff driver but Kyle Busch. RCR has been good on short tracks this year. Busch extends his win streak with a win at Martinsville.

That means I am picking two drivers to qualify on points: Tyler Reddick and William Byron. As I said before, Reddick will get things together. It also doesn’t hurt that he is sitting third in points. Finally, William Byron. Although not as dominate as he was at the beginning of the season, he has put together a solid playoff performance. I don’t expect him to loss any speed heading into the last four races.

I’ll save my championship pick for a later time. Let’s see how we do with the semi-final round.

Zech Yoder is a local resident, an attorney at Adler Attorneys in Noblesville, and a lifelong race fan.