With six races left until the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the playoff bubble is as follows: 15 Bubba Wallace +2; 16 Michael McDowell + 1; 17 Daniel Suarez -1; 18 A.J. Allmendinger -20; 19 Ty Gibbs -41; 20 Alex Bowman -42. Most surprising, Chase Elliott is in 23rd, 60 points below the cut-off line. Currently, 11 drivers are virtually locked into the playoffs with wins, and Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Chris Buescher, though winless, are well above the cutline.
For places 15 through 36, the next six races are an opportunity to win to get in the playoffs.
Bubba Wallace, though hot through the middle part of the regular season, has been struggling as of late. However, a top 10 finish at New Hampshire this past weekend has in back into a playoff spot. He has been strong at the intermediate ovals and should be a contender at Michigan International Speedway. His best shot at a win comes at the regular season finale in Daytona where his drafting ability and aggressiveness may push him to a win.
Michael McDowell has made consistent progress throughout the season. He has four top 10s in the last six races. Given his road-racing background, expect McDowell to be strong at the Indianapolis Road Course and Watkins Glen. Don’t forget, McDowell won the 2021 Daytona 500, so a Daytona win is not out of the question either.
A.J. Allmendinger has certainly not lit the world on fire in his first year in the Cup Series with Kaulig Racing. Nevertheless, he finds himself just 20 points outside a playoff spot. He is the best road-racer in the Cup Series and will be a factor at the Indianapolis Road Course and Watkins Glen. Despite for a playoff spot, anticipate Allmendinger stepping up the level of intensity. That just might land him in victory lane.
Most curious of all is Chase Elliott, sitting 60 points outside of the playoffs. Despite his six-race hiatus due to a snowboarding injury and his one-race suspension for intentionally wrecking Denny Hamlin at the Coke 600, many expected Elliott to have won a race and lock himself into the playoffs. Not only has Elliott failed to win, he’s struggled to run inside the top 10. His last two races, a 12th– and a 13th-place finish, has Elliott in desperation mode. Elliott has the talent to win at any track NASCAR visits, and his drafting and road-racing ability make him a favorite at the Indianapolis Road Course, Watkins Glen, and Daytona. What once seemed impossible is becoming more and more likely as each race passes without an Elliott win.
My predictions for the last two Cup Series playoffs spots are Chase Elliott and Michael McDowell. I believe Chase Elliott will lock himself in with a win, and McDowell will continue his run of consistent finishes to claim the 16th and final position in the NASCAR playoffs.
For those open wheel fans, IndyCar has its double-header at Iowa, racing on Saturday and Sunday. Expect Joseph Newgarden to be strong as he is 2 for 2 on ovals this year. Conor Daly will be piloting the number 60 Meyer Shank Racing entry in place of the injured Simon Pagenaud. Alex Palou will also be looking to extend his streak of top 2 finishes. Iowa is a favorite among ovals.
It should be a great several days of racing.
Zech Yoder is a local resident, an attorney at Adler Attorneys in Noblesville, and a lifelong race fan.