The Hamilton Southeastern School District will likely see its enrollment peak in a few years, based on the latest update from demographer Dr. Jerry McKibben. The board was told that one major unknown is what may happen with interest rates over the next few years.
McKibben told the board 5 percent is the major threshold to watch, and mortgage rates are just a tick under 5 percent now. If interest rates continue to move upward, that could place a damper on new home construction.
“Your total enrollment, in elementary particularly, and overall for the district, is probably hitting its peak in 2020,” McKibben told the board, “but the distribution issues are going to be your main challenges.”
The distribution issues relate to not having school buildings in the geographical locations where housing is being developed and student populations are growing. That can lead to redistricting in order to balance student enrollments in the district’s school buildings.
McKibben projects small overall enrollment increases for HSE Schools, below 1 percent each year, until 2021, when he predicts small percentage decreases annually through 2028. However, high school populations will grow in the next few years, peaking at 7,094 (both high school buildings combined) in the 2021-2022 school year. After 2021-2022, McKibben projects slight annual decreases in high school enrollment through 2027, then remaining flat in 2028.
You can view Dr. McKibben’s entire presentation to the board at this link and this link.