Early predictions for Indy

By ZECH YODER

We are less than two weeks away from the two-day open test at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (April 23 and 24). The weather forecast looks promising, bringing warmer weather and sunny skies.

As May approaches, I would like to make some early predictions for the Indianapolis 500.

I’m going to start from the back with those on bump alert. There are 33 starting spots and 34 entries. Someone is going to be bumped from the 500. Among the regulars on the INDYCAR grid, my biggest concern is for Robert Shwartzman and Callum Ilott of Prema Racing.

Prema is new to INDYCAR this year and with two road/street races under their belt, we have no idea where Prema’s oval program stands. While Ilott has three previous Indianapolis 500 starts and sufficient experience on the 2.5-mile track, Shwartzman is yet to start an oval in an INDYCAR. Shwartzman has the most to prove and the most to lose.

The other team with bump concerns is Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing (RLL). Graham Rahal was bumped in 2023, and Rahal and Katherine Legge barely made the field in 2024. Except for Rahal, RLL has a new driver lineup for 2025. If their cars aren’t better, it could make for a long month of May.

On the other side of the field, Penske remains the favorite. With Josef Newgarden going back-to-back in 2023 and 2024 and Scott McLaughlin winning pole in 2024, Penske will be tough to beat. However, I think McLaren will continuing closing the gap to Penske. Given Pato O’Ward’s heartbreaking last-lap defeat, I believe his intensity and focus will be elevated to a new level.

Additionally, Kyle Larson gets his second chance at Indy. After the whirlwind of his first start last year, Larson will be more relaxed and has a real chance at a front-row starting spot. I predict big gains for him in 2025.

You can’t count out Colton Herta. His luck the last few years has been lousy. I expect him to qualify better and be in the front come race day.

Finally, I am unsure what to think about the Ganassi cars. They were fast last year but could not dominate like Newgarden or O’Ward. Would it shock me if Palou got his first 500 victory? No, but I just don’t see it happening this year.

I can’t believe we are talking about the Indianapolis 500 already. May is almost here.

Zech Yoder is a local resident, an attorney at Adler Attorneys in Noblesville, and a lifelong race fan.