Hoosiers must now take personal responsibility to defeat the virus

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Dear Editor:

Getting through the virus outbreak is much more than just a healthcare issue. It is also a social, economic, political and personal issue.

Given the exaggerated and frightening information published when the pandemic began, governments decided to fight the virus by various types of “shutdown” and isolation protocols. They wanted to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by flattening the infection curve and reduce the number of COVID-19 patients going into hospitals at any one time.

However, this consequently extends the length of time that the virus spreads. In doing so, the states took the responsibility away from us as individuals, but now it is time for us to take that personal responsibility back.

According to Hamilton County Commissioner Steve Dillinger, the controlling the outbreak “…has been a very difficult task, given the varying opinions of the different experts.”

For example, Governor Holcomb recently reduced the restrictions on Hoosiers. In his May 1 speech on getting Indiana “back on track,” the governor stated that the number of people being admitted to hospitals due to COVID-19 is one indicator of the level of danger. He also stated that this number has dropped over the previous week. This is a good metric, but I fear that it sends an incomplete message when considered by itself. The fact remains that both the number of COVID cases and deaths are still increasing in the state as of May 4, even with the restrictions in place (Figure 1).

Figure 1. The number of cases of COVID infection and deaths continue increasing as of May 4. The last few data points appear to be dropping, but the data is typically refined upward over time as cases and deaths are reported, so this should not be interpreted as a downward shift. Data source: coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm. (Graphic provided)

In contrast, the day-over-day death rate is actually decreasing. The death rate is not the probability of dying from COVID, which was originally estimated at a terrifying 5 percent and even higher. The death rate is the change in the number of deaths day-over-day. The good news is that in our state and others, the death rate is actually getting lower (Figure 2).

Figure 2. The Hoosier Death Rate day-over-day is consistently decreasing as of May 4. The last few data points are typically refined upward over time as deaths are reported, and should not be interpreted as a more significant drop. (Graphic provided)

Think of a car going uphill. It can do so at a constant speed, while getting faster as it goes, or getting slower as it climbs. In our case, we have more people getting sick and dying, but not at the rate we did. The car is slowing down, but it has not yet crested the hill. By April 11, the death rate in Indiana became much less variable and continued to trend downward. There are all sorts of reasons as to why. It could be that the most vulnerable Hoosiers have already been exposed and passed away. It could be that we’ve figured out better treatments. It could be that the shutdown worked and our most vulnerable people are not being as exposed as easily as before. It is likely a combination of things.

The fact that the number of hospital admissions for COVID-19 has gone down over a few days is potentially a good sign, but it is not yet enough data to be statistically sound. This is why Governor Holcomb made it very clear that we may be starting to see an improvement. He did not declare the virus defeated. He correctly indicated that we need over two weeks of data before we can look for a trend. Just as importantly, this trend could easily change as the underlying situation changes, e.g., relaxed restrictions, so this and other metrics require close monitoring going forward.

Now more than ever, we must remain personally vigilant about protecting our more vulnerable Hoosiers. As more people begin to work and play again, we are also potentially passing the virus to one another. People are tired of being cooped up, and they’re frustrated at lost income and the threat to their businesses.

We all want to get back to normal. Nonetheless, we will likely see an increased rate of infections and deaths as we relax our collective guard. If we relax too much, we could see a huge increase and inspire more restrictive measures once again.

Commissioner Dillinger points out that “…it will require each of us … not government … to take responsibility for our own actions to keep ourselves and the people around us safe.”

If we don’t take this seriously enough, we could end up enduring tougher state-imposed restrictions, and suffer even greater economic consequences down the line.

Matthew Rowe

Carmel